Finally, as I wrote yesterday, the Russian proposal to Syria, to put its chemical weapons under international control to avoid US military strikes, might be the perfect idea to avoid a war in the region. Because it is clear that if the US had struck Syria there would have been retaliation or at least attempts to retaliate. Maybe not from Russia or China, the two major allies of Assad and two big superpowers, but from isolated people, probably even from "terrorists" who would have used these strikes as excuses to attack the USA and Americans.
But the solution has not been yet sorted out. We have to wait for various answers: first Assad and his government's response to the proposal, then what the Americans will say. We have to wait and see if Assad the decision (if he accepts the Russian's proposal) to let international experts destroy and control its chemical weapons stock. Then there is the question of its membership to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) which is the other part of the Russian proposal. Will Syria become a member and therefore abide to its regulations about chemical weapons?
It seems that Syria is not against the proposal but there are probably various factions within the Assad regime and some might not accept. Now if Assad agrees and starts moving, will he be strong enough to oblige whoever is against to accept his decision?
Now what about the international reactions to the Russian's proposal? For the moment, various head of states have welcomed the proposal although with care. It is the case of David Cameron and even Barack Obama who are now waiting for the Syrian's answer. In fact it is, in a way, a relief for all superpowers, even if they do not admit it officially. I don't think Obama would really want to start a war, because if the US strike Syria, it is a war that will probably begin and nobody knows when it can stop. Obama has criticized his predecessor to have started the Iraqi war and he was right, and it would be ironical if he would do the same thing.
The other good news is that the Americans don't want another war that would cost them a lot of money and a lot of casualties for nothing. To tell the truth the Americans are not really threatened by Syria's attack with chemical weapons. To be very cynical Assad's army attacked Syrian opponents with chemical weapons (if it is true that it was the army that used them because some people are saying that it was the opposition that did it) and not the Americans. Syria did not threatened the United States nor the Americans. At the same time it is also true that we cannot stay mute while a country uses chemical weapons to attack part of its people. Nobody can watch this without taking a position and eventually intervene. But at the same time nobody, except the UN (but we all know that this organization is very often useless in tackling international crisis), can be the law officer of the world.
So now it is a question of hope and of wait to see what will happen in the next few days. But hope is possible. Hope to see Syria accepting the Russian proposal and to defuse the crisis.
But the solution has not been yet sorted out. We have to wait for various answers: first Assad and his government's response to the proposal, then what the Americans will say. We have to wait and see if Assad the decision (if he accepts the Russian's proposal) to let international experts destroy and control its chemical weapons stock. Then there is the question of its membership to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) which is the other part of the Russian proposal. Will Syria become a member and therefore abide to its regulations about chemical weapons?
It seems that Syria is not against the proposal but there are probably various factions within the Assad regime and some might not accept. Now if Assad agrees and starts moving, will he be strong enough to oblige whoever is against to accept his decision?
Now what about the international reactions to the Russian's proposal? For the moment, various head of states have welcomed the proposal although with care. It is the case of David Cameron and even Barack Obama who are now waiting for the Syrian's answer. In fact it is, in a way, a relief for all superpowers, even if they do not admit it officially. I don't think Obama would really want to start a war, because if the US strike Syria, it is a war that will probably begin and nobody knows when it can stop. Obama has criticized his predecessor to have started the Iraqi war and he was right, and it would be ironical if he would do the same thing.
The other good news is that the Americans don't want another war that would cost them a lot of money and a lot of casualties for nothing. To tell the truth the Americans are not really threatened by Syria's attack with chemical weapons. To be very cynical Assad's army attacked Syrian opponents with chemical weapons (if it is true that it was the army that used them because some people are saying that it was the opposition that did it) and not the Americans. Syria did not threatened the United States nor the Americans. At the same time it is also true that we cannot stay mute while a country uses chemical weapons to attack part of its people. Nobody can watch this without taking a position and eventually intervene. But at the same time nobody, except the UN (but we all know that this organization is very often useless in tackling international crisis), can be the law officer of the world.
So now it is a question of hope and of wait to see what will happen in the next few days. But hope is possible. Hope to see Syria accepting the Russian proposal and to defuse the crisis.
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire